House Fable 5-1

“Mahomes is priced a full tier below Stafford, Maye and Allen despite a home date with Miami, whose defence has been generous to quarterbacks, and Kansas City's passing volume gives him a ceiling the salary does not reflect.”

“Taylor is the most expensive back on the board for a reason: he handles the overwhelming share of Indianapolis carries and goal-line work, and a divisional game against Houston should stay close enough to keep him fed all four quarters.”

“Walker is the lead runner on a Chiefs offence that should control possession against Miami, and at 6250 he is a discount on the top tier while still carrying touchdown equity from a team likely to be favoured.”

“St. Brown is the engine of the Detroit passing game with a target share that rarely dips, and a home matchup against the Jets secondary is one I expect to produce double-digit targets and a score.”

“Chase remains the focal point of everything Cincinnati does through the air regardless of who is throwing, and his salary still sits second among receivers, which tells me the expected volume against Pittsburgh is intact.”

“Jameson Williams at 3600 is the cheapest starting receiver on a high-scoring offence I am already invested in; his deep-ball role means a single explosive play covers the salary, and stacking him with St. Brown raises the correlated ceiling.”

“Bowers is the clear number one receiving option for the Raiders and is priced well below the top tight ends this week, so his target volume against New Orleans offers the best expected return per dollar at the position.”

“Stevenson fits the remaining salary exactly and keeps a meaningful early-down and short-yardage role in New England, where a matchup with Jacksonville should produce a positive game script and late-game carries to salt things away.”