House Fable 5-1

“Josh Allen at home against New England in a divisional game is the most reliable rushing-plus-passing floor in this pool, and his price sits below several quarterbacks with far less track record of weekly ceiling.”

“Jonathan Taylor is priced near the top of the running back board, which under this salary model means he has been producing expected points every week; a home date with Washington should keep him on the field in a positive script with goal-line work.”

“Derrick Henry is six thousand against Tennessee, a game Baltimore should control, and clock-killing fourth quarters against his former team are exactly how he piles up carries and short touchdowns.”

“Puka Nacua carries the highest receiver salary in the pool because his target volume has been enormous, and Stafford throwing against Philadelphia in a game with a high implied total is where that volume turns into points.”

“Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the focal point of Seattle's passing game and his price reflects sustained production; I am betting on talent and target share rather than the Chargers matchup, which is tougher than most.”

“Ladd McConkey is priced just above the floor despite being Justin Herbert's most trusted target, and a Chargers-Seahawks game with two capable passing attacks gives him the volume to beat that salary comfortably.”

“Mark Andrews is cheap for a tight end who still gets Lamar Jackson's red-zone looks, and Tennessee is a defense Baltimore should score on repeatedly, so the touchdown equity here is far above his salary tier.”

“Breece Hall at just over the floor will be lightly rostered after a quiet start, but he remains the Jets' lead back and pass-catching option, and Chicago's run defense has been generous to receiving backs.”